Rally flat caps8/23/2023 Thematic Market Neutral Momentum Index, which buys the market’s winners against losers based on recent returns, underperformed other popular strategies including value, which targets cheap stocks. Performance in factor-based indexes - quant tools that target stocks based on specific characteristics - signals improving market breadth as well. While income growth from Russell 2000 firms is expected to trail their larger counterparts for the third quarter, it will rebound over the next four periods, with profits expanding at a rate more than triple the S&P 500’s by the middle of 2024, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show. “When an indicator that shows that macro uncertainty is very low, that’s a huge tailwind for stocks.”įAANG euphoria may get all the hype, but earnings prospects for small-caps are expected to improve later this year. “That whole macro worry that we’ve had: it’s dissipated,” he said. The muted implied volatility fuels the bullish narrative, according to John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors. A measure of cross-asset risk kept by Bank of America has steadily declined in 2023, aside from a spike during the banking turmoil in March. One consequence of a buoyant economy has been a diminishing of volatility, and not just in stocks. “Broadening of economic performance can fuel optimism around broader equity market performance.” “It’s contributing to the narrative,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Yet unlike in 2022, when the sight of higher borrowing costs sent stocks reeling, now this is perceived as an endorsement of the idea that a widely feared recession is not an imminent threat. The steadfastness, along with signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for two more rate hikes in 2023, sparked a spike in Treasury yields. While a report on Friday showed stagnant consumer spending and cooling inflation, earlier data on everything from gross domestic product to new home sales and durable goods orders beat forecasts.Īll told, a Bloomberg index tracking economic surprises has risen in all but two weeks since early April and reached the highest level in more than two years. The Russell 2000, often seen as a proxy for small-cap health, posted a more modest advance of 7.2%. A handful of its biggest stocks - contenders in the artificial intelligence race - pushed the benchmark S&P 500 Index up roughly 16%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged close to 40% in the first half of the year, recouping much of its 2022 losses. We’ve put a little bit of money to work.” “We’re a little bit more optimistic about the economy than we were three and four months ago. “Certainly six months ago I expected a recession, but now that’s looking a little bit less likely,” he added. “Everybody talks about the Big Seven or whatever number they like about big-cap tech and AI and all that stuff, but they’re not the only ones that are really seeing strength right now,” said Jeff Muhlenkamp, whose Muhlenkamp Fund has cut cash holdings to 15% from 35% in February, scooping up shares in homebuilders, one financial firm and a media company. The index’s equal-weighted version beat the traditional one by 1 percentage point for the best week since January. Stocks of all stripes benefited, with nine of ten S&P 500 members climbing. The idea that gains would broaden out after being confined to an oligarchy of artificial-intelligence megacaps has been a prong in bull cases all year, and got a boost this week from a clutch of economic reports that again suggested a recession is still a way’s away. Industries that had previously trailed - from transports to real estate and energy - this time led the way. United May Cut Newark Flights as It Seeks More Gates to Stem Delaysīeneath another rousing advance this week were signs of an increasingly equitable division of rewards, including the best week for small-caps since March and a trouncing of the S&P 500 by a version of the same index that strips out market-value biases. Tesla, BYD Post Record Sales on Demand for Electric Vehicles It’s Getting a Lot Harder to Chase the Stock Rally From Here On That criticism just took a hit.įrench Riots Begin to Abate Even as Economic Costs Mount (Bloomberg) - The big knock on the 2023 stock rally is that it rests on half-a-dozen companies thriving on hype.
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